Which Cities Have Seen an Increase in Property Crime?

Key takeaways

• Arlington, VA, has seen the largest increase in property crime since 2020 (+60.5%), followed by Chicago (+56.2%) and New York City (+54.7%).
• Bakersfield, CA (-40.4%) and Winston-Salem, NC (-37.9%) have seen the largest decreases in overall property crime since 2020.
• El Paso, TX, has seen a 268.8% increase in motor vehicle theft since 2020.
• The cities with the highest average winter property crime rates per 100,000 residents are Oakland, CA (607.6), Memphis, TN (545.2), and St. Louis, MO (492.5).

Whether you're a homeowner, renter, or landlord, understanding local property crime trends is essential for protecting your space. To show how crime patterns have shifted since 2020, we analyzed monthly FBI-reported data to identify where property crime is rising and where it’s moving in the opposite direction.

This analysis highlights the U.S. cities with the biggest changes in property crime from 2020 to 2024, including seasonal patterns that may influence how residents think about safety throughout the year.

Property crime trends across the U.S.

While many cities have made progress in reducing property crime, others have seen increases over the past few years. Here's a look at overall property crime trends, along with a breakdown by burglary (illegal entry with intent to commit a crime), larceny (theft without illegal entry), and motor vehicle theft.

Arlington, Virginia, saw the largest increase in property crime, up 60.5% since 2020. Chicago and New York City followed, with overall property crime rates climbing 56.2% and 54.7%, respectively.

Arlington also recorded the largest jump in larceny (64%) and burglary (44%) rates, signaling that residents and law enforcement may need to re-evaluate prevention strategies for break-ins.

El Paso, Texas, stood out for a different reason—a 268.8% rise in motor vehicle theft. This category of crime has gained national attention in recent years, and El Paso's numbers show just how sharply it can spike in a short period.

As for the good news, Bakersfield, California, has seen a 40.4% drop in property crime since 2020. Winston-Salem, North Carolina, wasn't far behind, with a 37.9% decrease.

These three cities saw the highest winter property crime rates: Oakland, California (607.6 per 100,000 residents), Memphis, Tennessee (545.2), and St. Louis, Missouri (492.5). Oakland also had the highest average property crime rate in the spring (613.2) and summer (648.4).

By fall, Memphis had the highest property crime rate (570.8), with Oakland (559.9) and St. Louis (556.9) close behind. This consistency across seasons suggests that these three cities may face year-round challenges with property crimes.

Understanding the future of property crime

Property crime is far from a static issue. It shifts by city, by season, and by crime category. From Arlington's rise in burglary to El Paso's increase in car thefts, the trends show how quickly the landscape can change, and how homeowners adapt alongside it. As concerns shift, many are turning to technology for added peace of mind, with security tools like smart doorbells, lighting, cameras, and smart locks ranking among the most commonly owned or planned smart home upgrades. That momentum is reflected in sentiment as well, with 37% of homeowners naming home security and protection as the most exciting smart home category, signaling a link between shifting crime patterns and how people invest in their homes. 

Whether crime rates are rising or falling, these findings highlight the need for proactive measures—such as smart security systems, community awareness, and strategic law enforcement—to keep homes and neighborhoods safe.

Methodology

This study analyzes FBI-reported monthly property crime rates (per 100,000 residents) for U.S. cities. Data was limited to January 2020 through December 2024, the most recent period with finalized and consistently reported monthly data across agencies. Data for 2025 was excluded due to incomplete and provisional reporting. Only cities with sufficient data were included.

To measure change over time, annual property crime rates were calculated for each city by averaging rates within each year. The percentage change in property crime was then calculated by comparing 2020 annual averages to 2024 annual averages.

To examine seasonal patterns, monthly property crime rates were averaged across the five-year period (2020–2024) for each city. Months were grouped into standard meteorological seasons: Winter (December–February), Spring (March–May), Summer (June–August), and Fall (September–November). Seasonal values represent the average of monthly rates within each season, not summed totals.

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